‘Strayan car sales stalled on the grid in July – so let’s look at the soft targets with a view to you violating a car dealer in August.
You might have seen the news:
“Holden posts worst result since July 1948 as new-car sales hit brakes in July.” – Joshua Dowling, News.com.au
Which is literally untrue – Holden’s worst sales are down to closing the factory and the long-term betrayal of its customers and the Australian people more broadly. July was just another aggravating influence on Holden’s plunge to complete obscurity.
July is something of a barren month, car-wise. And that certainly was the case this July – only this July just gone was worse. Almost eight per cent worse than last year. 7.8 per cent, to be precise. So that’s bad for them; good for you. Somewhat.
Passenger cars were the biggest losers, as a segment – down 20 per cent. And there, both medium and large cars were an abject disaster – no doubt exacerbated by the fall of the Holden Commodore to national ‘joke’ status.
Kia, Nissan and Volkswagen were the big winners in the top 10 in July – each up between about three and four per cent in a market that fell about eight. So I guess they’re feeling a bit bullish.
Here’s where it gets interesting: Toyota, Mazda, Hyundai and Mitsubishi are all down, compared with previous July, but by less than the market average. So they’re under pressure but – kinda – doing OK.
The biggest losers in the top 10 for July are Ford (down almost 13 per cent) followed by Subaru (down just over 21 per cent) and Holden (down more than 39 per cent – deservingly enough).
In my view, you simply should not buy a Ford or a Holden – just go back on your meds. Reliability: Disaster. Depreciation: Appalling. Customer support: Disgraceful. That’s both brands – Holden and Ford.
But Subaru is under pressure – so that’s good – and Subaru’s recent slump is not all just a trough awaiting the imminent launch of the new Forester. They’re having a Barry Crocker right now, and you can certainly capitalise on that. Because the last thing a dealer wants is to be overstocked.
Toyota, Hyundai, Mazda and Mitsubishi dealers are likely to be slightly overstocked as well – just not to the degree Subaru is, right now.
Among Ze Cherman luxury brands, the three-pointed swastika is down more than 15 per cent for July – and seven per cent overall this year. So there’s a chance their dark, customer-betraying hearts have already accommodated much of this slump. Overstocking is reasonably managed, in all likelihood, at your local Benz dealer.
Audi’s down a staggering 36 per cent – but the four-ringed monkey-spankers know they’re having a sales shocker – they’ve issued all the bullshit statements talking it up.
Gassing the monkeys was a bad idea. Having a CEO imprisoned, accused of being a kingpin in the ‘profit first; human health last’ Dieselgate scandal was a worse idea. Boxhead geniuses.
BMW is interesting though – down almost 22 per cent in July, but less than three per cent down, year-on-year. So in all probability this BMW slump has caught the Bavarian Money Wasters with their lederhausen around their ankles.
Dealers there are likely to be groaning under the strain of unshifted stock. Good for our team – and of the big three, BMW is, in my experience, the only one with a functioning moral compass when it comes to customer support – and ethics generally – so there’s that.
If you want some specific vehicle recommendations, these decent vehicles that I routinely recommend are currently down more than double the July slump: In small cars: Subaru Impreza and Hyundai Elantra.
Medium cars – a dying segment – are almost all screwed: Hyundai Sonata and Mazda6 – both down more than 20 per cent. (But the new-model Mazda6 might be yet to factor into that equation – so take caution there.)
And if you want a wagon, Subaru Levorg – 77 per cent down in July but 13 per cent down, year-on-year. This is an awesome car – WRX wagon with an absurd name (the word ‘grovel’, backwards, please). 77 per cent. Please. Do you think there just might be a few parked out the back at dealerships, currently?
Sports cars under $80k are essentially all down – that segment is off the pace a massive 43 per cent. Shitbox Mustang (don’t crash; it’s a death trap, but cool) almost 41 per cent down, Mazda MX-5: almost 56 per cent off the pace, and Toyota 86 down almost 36 per cent.
For small SUVs, Subaru XV is down over 29 per cent. CX-3 is down more than 13 per cent. No real opportunities in medium SUVs – Tucson and Forester are both down, but they’re in run-out mode, virtually.
In large SUVs, CX-9 is a standout opportunity. 24 per cent down in July, nine per cent down, year on year. There’s likely overstocking there. Everything else in large SUVs is either a shitheap selling badly (Everest, Trailblazer, Fortuner) or selling quite well, and on the up (Santa Fe, Pajero Sport, Kluger).